When three leaders: Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi sit together, it is more than a headline. It is a reminder that global politics is not static; it is always being re-written. Their recent meeting at the SCO Summit in Tianjin came at a moment when the world economy is unsettled: U.S. tariffs are redrawing supply chains, Russia is searching for survival under sanctions, and China is slowing after decades of breakneck growth.
India stands at the crossroads: neither a bystander nor fully aligned with any bloc. Its choices today will shape not only its rise but also the balance of power in Asia.
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China’s economic story has long been presented as one of unstoppable rise. For decades, it grew at double digits, transforming from a closed agrarian society into the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. But that linear story has begun to slow. The growth is now around 5%, far below its earlier pace. The real estate sector, once the engine of prosperity for middle-class households, is now a source of instability. Youth unemployment has risen, reflecting a deeper malaise in the job market. On top of this, U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors have struck at Beijing’s ambition to dominate high-tech industries.
Xi Jinping’s response has not been retreat but recalibration. He has spoken of “dual circulation,” a strategy that emphasizes self-reliance while keeping select global linkages open. China is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and chip technology to reduce dependence on the West. It is also promoting trade in yuan, especially with Russia, to slowly reduce dollar dominance.
Internationally, Beijing is still projecting power through the Belt and Road Initiative, deepening ties in Africa and Latin America. At the Tianjin summit, Xi appeared not as an isolated leader but as one who still has partners in Asia, even if relations with the West are tense.
Russia: Surviving on Energy and Resilience
Russia’s economic trajectory has been more dramatic. The war in Ukraine and the sweeping sanctions that followed have closed off access to Western finance, markets, and technology. Yet, instead of collapsing, Russia has managed a kind of resilience by pivoting eastward. Energy exports have become the lifeline, with India and China emerging as major buyers. India alone now sources close to 40% of its oil from Russia, while China remains the single largest consumer of Russian energy.
This eastward shift is not only about markets but also about currency. Trade in ruble and yuan has surged, creating a laboratory for de-dollarisation. Yet, while GDP growth figures hover around 3%, much of it is driven by militarisation and state spending. Civilian innovation has weakened, and consumer demand remains fragile. For Vladimir Putin, the summit was not just diplomacy, it was visibility.
Appearing alongside Xi and Modi allowed Russia to signal that it still belongs to the high tables of global politics. But beneath that symbolism is a more unequal dependence; Russia increasingly relies on China, and its ability to diversify beyond that is limited.
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India came to the summit with a different story. Unlike its counterparts, it is not weighed down by sanctions or a dramatic slowdown. Instead, it is the fastest-growing major economy, expanding at around 6 to 6.5%. The sources of this confidence are diverse like robust services, digital innovation, and a demographic dividend that gives India a young and dynamic workforce.
Energy security has been strengthened by discounted Russian crude, which has helped contain inflation. At the same time, U.S. tariffs on China have opened doors for India in global supply chains. Multinationals now look at India as part of their “China+1” diversification strategy. Domestic innovations such as UPI and Aadhaar have strengthened governance and projected India’s soft power globally.
Yet India’s story is also one of balance. With the United States and other Quad members, it shares technology, defense, and Indo-Pacific cooperation. With Russia, it maintains energy and defense ties. With China, relations remain strained by the border dispute, but economic links persist.
India’s foreign policy continues to rest on strategic autonomy, refusing to align blindly with any one bloc. This approach, once called non-alignment, now finds relevance in a multipolar but divided world.
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Join IAS Batch NowStart Free DemoThe Tariff Shock and Its Ripple Effects
The backdrop to these alignments is the tariff war launched by the United States.
The U.S. did not sit at the table in Tianjin, but its shadow loomed large. Tariffs, sanctions, and tech restrictions are redrawing the world economy, forcing countries to rethink old patterns.
Washington’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors is not a simple trade policy, it is an attempt to reshape the global economic order. China, long the global factory, suddenly faces barriers to its most advanced exports. This has created opportunities for others. Countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico are becoming alternative hubs for supply chains, offering stability and cost advantages. Russia, already sanctioned, has little room to maneuver and has become more dependent on Chinese markets.
For India, the tariff shock is both a challenge and an opening. If it can build infrastructure, skill its workforce, and reform its manufacturing ecosystem, it may be able to capture the space left vacant by China. If it cannot, the moment may pass and others will seize the opportunity.
Multipolarity: Promise and Paradox
A recurring theme at the summit was multipolarity, a world where no single power dominates. Platforms like BRICS+ and the SCO are being used to amplify the voice of the Global South, promote local currency trade, and reduce dependency on Western institutions.
But the paradox is clear:
- India and China remain strategic rivals,their border dispute unresolved.
- Russia, while strong militarily, is economically leaning into China’s orbit.
- India still depends on Western technology and markets, despite its push for Atmanirbharta (self-reliance).
- And the economic asymmetry is stark: China’s GDP stands at around 18 trillion dollars, India’s at 4 trillion, and Russia’s at 2 trillion.
So while the idea of multipolarity is appealing, its practice is messy, filled with contradictions, asymmetries, and tensions
Realignments in a Fragmented World
The summit also highlighted how each of the three powers is attempting to re-align itself within the current flux of geopolitics. China, under economic pressure and U.S. scrutiny, is moving from an export-driven model to one of technological self-reliance and regional assertion.
Russia, constrained by sanctions, has decisively turned eastward, making China its principal partner while also leaning on India to maintain some balance. India, for its part, is walking a careful path deepening ties with the United States and other Western partners while continuing to secure energy and defense supplies from Russia and engaging cautiously with China through multilateral forums.
This triangular dynamic is not about creating a new bloc in the old Cold War sense. Instead, it is a fluid arrangement shaped by necessity, opportunity, and the desire for visibility.
Implications for India
For India, the summit crystallises both opportunities and challenges. It has the chance to capture new supply chains, secure affordable energy, and amplify its leadership role in the Global South.
But it must also manage a difficult neighbourhood, avoid overdependence on Russian arms and oil, and balance its Western partnerships with its Eastern engagements. Its success will depend not only on diplomatic balancing but also on domestic capacity-building: infrastructure, industry, and human capital.
Conclusion
The Xi – Modi – Putin summit was more than a photo-op. It was a snapshot of a world in flux. China is recalibrating under economic pressure, Russia is surviving through an eastward pivot, and India is cautiously rising as a swing economy. U.S. tariffs and sanctions have accelerated these shifts, reshaping alliances and dependencies.
For India, the path forward requires strategic autonomy and calibrated balancing in a contested multipolar order, leveraging geoeconomic opportunities, hedging against entanglements, and asserting influence as a regional and global stabiliser.
With its G20 presidency and growing voice in BRICS+ and SCO, India can champion the Global South, operationalise its soft power, and advance the Vishwaguru vision: blending civilisational leadership with technological self-reliance. Success lies in synchronising domestic capacity-building, defence preparedness, and diplomatic finesse, ensuring India emerges not merely as a participant but as a moral, economic, and strategic anchor in the evolving world order.